![]() ![]() tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on /disclosures. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tasty live is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. tasty live is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tasty live, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. (“tasty live”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Tasty live content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. Because our breakeven price is directly related to our POP, and this breakeven is improved by selling premium, we can consistently improve our POP with premium selling strategies. This credit can be used as a buffer against losses on our position, which grants us an even higher probability of success. When selling options, we collect a credit, which is cash. The ability to make money in multiple ways results in a higher probability of success overall. When selling an option, the stock price can stay the same, go in our favor, or go against us just a bit and we’ll still be profitable at expiration. We also have more ways to be successful with strategies like this. Knowing this, we can automatically assume that we will have a greater than 50% probability of success if we believe just buying or selling stock outright will yield a coin flip opportunity. ![]() The Probability Calculator gives the likelihood that prices are ever exceeded during the trading period, not just at the end.When we sell options, we sell them at strikes that are at the money (where the stock price is trading) or out of the money (at a better price than where the stock price is trading). ![]() If the stock, stock options, or combination becomes profitable before the end of the trading period (for example, before the expiration of some stock options), it is reasonable that a trader may decide to reap part or all of those profits at that time. In real trading, however, investors are following the price of a stock or stock options throughout the entire trading period. Many calculators are available that give the theoretical probability that a stock may approach certain values at the end of a trading period. Over a number of trading days, the price of a stock may vary widely and still end up at or near the original purchase price. What makes McMillan’s Probability Calculator different? ![]() The program uses a technique known as Monte Carlo Simulation to produce estimates that assess the probability of making money in a trade, but can also be used by traders to determine whether to purchase or sell stock, stock options, or combinations thereof. McMillan’s Probability Calculator is low-priced, easy-to-use software designed to estimate the probabilities that a stock will ever move beyond two set prices-the upside price and the downside price-during a given amount of time. The Probability Calculator Software Simulate the probability of making money in your stock or option position. ![]()
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